The Rabbitohs and the Tigers both sit squarely in the bottom four but the Rabbitohs are heavily favoured in this one in what seems to be a case of severe mispricing.
Best Bet
The Wests Tigers are an outstanding bet to cover the big start after their abject humiliation last week.
Even without Api Koroisau, the Tigers are a sensational bet against the Bunnies in Gosford.
Souths remain without Latrell Mitchell while Cameron Murray will join him on the sidelines after receiving a two-match suspension during State of Origin.
Teams off extremely poor defensive showings nearly always bounce back. Sides off allowing 56 or more points are 34-12 ATS since 2008 including 14-3 ATS the last four seasons. Teams off losing by 40 or more cover at 60%.
The Tigers have been good in the spot too, covering four of five off conceding 56 or more. They are 11-5 ATS as a double digit underdog off conceding 30-plus.
Souths are 2-12 ATS when favoured and 1-7 ATS in day games and crucially, do not have even a barely competent goalkicker. The plus is good.
Insights
🔽 South Sydney vs Bottom 9 Teams: Games against bottom 9 teams have seen the total go over 7 times out of the last 9 games for South Sydney. 📈
❌ Conceding 30+ Points: When South Sydney has conceded more than 30 points in a game, they have struggled to cover the spread, achieving only 1 cover in the last 9 games. 📉
🔒 Wests Tigers Conceding 50+ Points: When Wests Tigers have conceded more than 50 points, the total has gone under in 6 out of the last 6 games. 🔒
Same Game Multi
Charlie Staines has five tries in his last eight games starting on a wing.
Richie Kennar has 10 tries in 14 games since returning to the Rabbitohs.
Value Bet
There is so much to like about Lachlan Galvin, a player who is always in the game and one who is not afraid to run. He has three tries in his last four games and looks a fabulous back-up merchant to boot. Nice bet.
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