NRL Tips - South Sydney v Penrith

The Jason Demetriou era ended at South Sydney on Tuesday night with Ben Hornby taking the reins this week in a brutal matchup against three-time defending premiers Penrith.

Best Bet

South Sydney +15.5

Line

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$1.85

The new-coach bounce is a myth in the NRL – teams tend to run at about 50% the week after sacking a coach – but it was very clear that the team was so far off Jason Demetriou that they were never going to put in for him. There is at least the possibility that will change for interim coach Ben Hornby.

The likes of Damien Cook and Keaon Koloamatangi would not surprise if they played their best game this season on Thursday. There is also the chance that there is a major reshuffle with Cody Walker and Jack Wighton likely to play in the halves.

While this looks a mismatch on form, there is a good case to be made for Souths, who are riding a 14-game non-cover streak.

Teams off conceding at least 50 points cover at 66% the following week. Humiliation leads to greater application. When those teams are at home, the cover rate jumps to 71%. When that team is a home underdog, the cover rate is a remarkable 79%.

If the Bunnies are going to dig in this year, this will be the week. They would be a tremendous cover bet against most teams but Penrith, particularly off an average performance, tempers enthusiasm.

The Panthers have covered four of their last five against the Rabbitohs. And they have covered 10 of 13 off conceding 20-plus. But as just a 50% cover team when favoured by more than two converted tries away from BlueBet, Penrith can be taken on this week.

Bet the plus and pray for a lift.

Same Game Multi

Dylan Edwards Try/acob Gagai Try

Same Game Multi

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$6.00

Dylan Edwards is airborne this season with five tries in seven games in 2024.

Jacob Gagai can take advantage of Penrith’s weak edge with the Panthers conceding 10 of their 19 tries down their right. Gagai has three tries in two NRL appearances.

Value Bet

Luke Garner

To Score A Try

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$3.55

Luke Garner is a tremendous tryscoring backrower when he gets a start and he gets the start this week. Garner crossed last week before the try was ridiculously overturned. He has 19 tries in 63 games when starting. Against a weak Souths edge, he gets a great opportunity.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.