NRL Tips - Raiders v Dolphins

Origin season is upon us and the first game of the first impacted round comes from the capital where the Raiders host the Dolphins with plenty of players from both teams missing.

Best Bet

Dolphins -1.5

Line

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$1.90

A big sigh is heard across the nation with the first of the Origin-affected rounds upon us.

The opening game of Round 12 is as hard hit as any with the Raiders missing Hudson Young and Ethan Strange while the Dolphins will be without Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Selwyn Cobbo, Tom Flegler, Max Plath and Kulikefu Finefuiaki. Simi Sasagi has picked up a serious injury for the Raiders while Kodi Nikorima has a strain that took him from the field in the win over the Bunnies.

Even with the players missing, the Dolphins look a notably better team. They have the 4th best defence and 9th best attack while the Raiders rank 14th in both categories.

The biggest impact on this game is not the loss of Tabuai-Fidow for the Dolphins but Young for the Raiders. Canberra win at 57% and cover at 49% when he plays – and that drops to 36% win rate and 29% cover rate when he is absent.

The Raiders are also 9-14 against the spread when they are $1.70 or bigger at home.

The Dolphins are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 against teams outside the Top 8 while they have covered their last three interstate.

The Phins are the bet though caution is advised.

Same Game Multi

Trai Fuller Try/Jack Bostock Try/Kaeo Weekes Try

Same Game Multi

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$8.50

Trai Fuller will get a rare opportunity this week with six tries in 14 starting NRL appearances.

Jack Bostock has looked a beast since returning from injury with four tries in three games playing in the centres.

Kaeo Weekes has scored in both his games against the Dolphins.

Value Bet

Jeremy Marshall-King

To Score A Try

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$5.00

Jeremy Marshall-King has looked sharp in two games back from an injury that kept him out of the first two months of the season and he already has a try to his name. He doesn’t score out of turn but in a game where so many players are missing, he will be looking for opportunities to run. Looks a good value bet.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.