NRL Tips – Penrith v St George Illawarra – Round 13 2024

Penrith Panthers vs St George Illawarra Dragons - NRL Tips

Penrith have more players off on Origin duty but it is St George Illawarra who have been hit harder by State of Origin, losing their two most important players and having nobody to replace them.

Best Bet

Penrith -9.5
Line

This match is as impacted by Origin as any this weekend with Penrith having five players on Origin duty and missing Nathan Cleary while St George Illawarra have three playing state football despite being well outside the Top 8.

The Panthers have more on Origin duty but are less impacted and better prepared to cope. Dylan Edwards heads their fivesome but all bar winger Jesse McLean have strong NRL experience coming in.

The Dragons are not only attempting to replace Ben Hunt with Jesse Marschke but Shane Flanagan has completely reworked the three-quarter line. Zac Lomax is on Origin duty, Jack Bird is out injured and Mikaele Ravalawa has been dropped.

It is hard to not be with Penrith here and the market agrees with the Panthers moving from -6.5 favourites to -9.5.

The Panthers have dominated this matchup with six straight wins. Teams off a win of 20-plus during Origin season cover at 60%. The Panthers are 10-2 ATS at home when favoured by less than 10.

The most notable state here though is that teams off a defensive shutout cover the next game at a clip of 68% the last four years. Penrith are 5-0 ATS in that spot.

The Panthers are the play.

Insights

🛡️ St George-Illawarra’s Strong Cover Performance Against Penrith: St George-Illawarra has successfully covered the spread in 7 of their last 9 encounters against Penrith.

🌊 Over Tendency for St George-Illawarra Against Top Teams: St George-Illawarra tends to be involved in high-scoring games against top 4 teams, with overs achieved in all their last 7 matches against such opposition.

🔥 Penrith’s High Scoring Following High-Point Games: After scoring more than 36 points, Penrith has a strong record of subsequent wins, securing victories in 22 of their last 25 such games, highlighting their momentum-building capability.


Same Game Multi

Paul Alamoti Try/Izack Tago Try
Same Game Multi

Paul Alamoti has three tries in five games since moving to Penrith and is a great addition to the team.

Izack Tago has scored in two of his last three.


Value Bet

Moses Leota
To Score A Try

The Dragons are weak through the middle and Moses Leota can find his way to the tryline. He has scored just once this year but has four tries in his last 37 games. He has scored in two of his last four against the Dragons.

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