Penrith were hammered by Manly earlier in the season and enter this game off a loss making the Panthers one of the better bets of Round 14.
Best Bet
There are few better bets in the NRL than betting Penrith off a loss.
The Panthers are 15-3 ATS off a loss and have covered six of seven off a double digit loss. They are 10-2 ATS off conceding 22-plus.
Penrith are also typically wildly underrated at home. They are 23-11 ATS at BlueBet including having a 10-2 cover record at home when favoured by less than 10.
Manly won well 32-18 in Round 5 but Penrith have tended to dominate this matchup with eight straight wins prior with the last six by 12 or more.
Penrith are 18-10 ATS since 2008.
Manly are still missing a lot of talent, headed by Tom Trbojevic, and they have covered just eight of 19 when an underdog of 7.5 or more.
Penrith are not getting the respect they deserve in this one, even with Cleary and Edwards missing. Be careful though with Origin backups as they will need Luai and To’o at a minimum.
Insights
📈 Penrith’s Strong Bounce Back: Following a loss, Penrith has shown exceptional resilience, winning 14 of their last 15 games. They have also covered the spread in 17 of their last 20 games after a loss, making them a reliable bet in bounce-back situations.
🏆 Penrith’s Dominance When Scoring Low: When Penrith scores less than 12 points in a game, they tend to come back strong. They have won all 9 of their last such games, covering the spread in 7 of these instances
🚫 Manly Against Top Teams: Manly has struggled against top-tier teams, covering the spread in only 2 of their last 9 games against top 4 and top 8 teams. This indicates potential difficulties in keeping up with stronger opponents.
Same Game Multi
Brian To’o has struggled to score this year but gets an elite matchup this week.
Paul Alamoti has four tries in six games since joining the Panthers including crossing in his last two.
Value Bet
Hopoate was outstanding on debut for Manly when the Sea Eagles beat the Storm and he has kept his spot against the Panthers. He was a good tryscorer in NSW Cup this year with six tries in 11 games. Looks value this week.
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