Penrith have lost three on the trot and are at their lowest point this decade but despite being big favourites are no good things against North Queensland.
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Best Bet
The line in this game is utterly astonishing and there is no way this line starts at 13.5 come kickoff.
Penrith have been incredibly poor since returning from favourites. They lost outright as the biggest beaten favourite since 2008 to the Roosters, who have since lost twice. They went down to the Storm and were then beaten as a double digit favourite by South Sydney.
The three straight losses have seen them concede at least 28 in each. To put that in context, they conceded 28 or more just seven times between 2020 and 2024.
Double digit favourites off a loss cover at just 34% over the last four seasons while Penrith have covered just three of 13 when starting a favourite of at least 10 points.
This is a handy spot for the Cowboys too despite the talent disparity. North Queensland have covered nine of 13 interstate while they are 5-1 ATS getting a start of at last 10 points.
Chips in the Cowboys plus here.
Same Game Multi
Paul Alamoti has 12 tries in 20 games for the Panthers and locked in on the wing he will get opportunities this week.
Scott Drinkwater has three tries in his last five against Penrith and is the Cowboys’ most dangerous player.
Value Bet
The reigning Dally M Five-Eighth of the Year scored the match sealer against Canberra and can go on with it against a banged-up Panthers. He scored against the Panthers in 2023. Fancy he is a good bet considering how often he runs.
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