NRL Tips - NSW v Queensland - Game 1

The 2026 State of Origin series kicks off at Accor Stadium in Sydney with the Blues once again underpriced favourites in a series they will be severely outcoached in.

Best Bet

Queensland +4.5

Line

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$1.90

We are over four decades into State of Origin yet most never learn. Queensland are massive underdogs for Origin I despite having a huge coaching advantage – perhaps the biggest in Origin history – and an undeniable record of being able to win with less talent.

The difference between Billy Slater and Laurie Daley is immense. Daley has claimed that James Tedesco won the job over Dylan Edwards because of their combination together – they have played six games together – while Casey McGuire was named on the bench when Casey McLean was intended. Jackson Ford was not picked because he exclusively plays in the middle – he has actually started 65% of his NRL games on an edge.

Daley’s history at Origin level is embarrassing, making it an absolute shock that he is back in the job. He has lost five of six series. The Blues average 13.33 points per game on his watch, topping 18 in just three of 18 games. At home the Blues are 3-5 when Daley is in charge.

Daley has managed to affirm his lack of credentials by picking the most ridiculous bench in Origin history topped by Jacob Saifiti being the only prop.

Billy Slater has had four series at the helm – with a talent deficit in each – but has won three primarily through astute selections and hard work.

Sam Walker was an astute replacement at halfback for the injured Tom Dearden.

Accor provides no home field advantage for NSW. Aside from their dire record at the ground under Daley, they have lost three of the last four at the ground with the last two by 12 or more.

Queensland have won five of the last seven series openers while they have scored 18 or more in four of their last six.

It is stunning that the Maroons are getting 4.5 points. Stunning.

Same Game Multi

Under 43.5/Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/Tolutau Koula Try

Same Game Multi

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$12.00

Nine of the last 14 games have tallied 38 or fewer with NSW scoring more than 18 just three times in 18 games under Laurie Daley.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has feasted at Origin level with 11 tries in 10 games in the Maroon jersey.

Tolutau Koula has 22 tries in 32 games across the last two seasons and looks ready-made for Origin.

Value Bet

Cameron Munster

To Score A Try

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$5.50

Cameron Munster endured a difficult start to the season where his place in the Queensland team was brought into question. He has found his form the last few weeks though and he rarely lets the Maroons down. He has scored three tries in his last seven Origins while he has three tries the last two weeks at club level. He looks an enormous price to cross.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.