North Queensland have six players backing up from Origin duty yet are heavily favoured to beat a resurgent Warriors outfit in Townsville.
Best Bet
The money has been pouring in for the Warriors all week and there is some chance they jump favourites this week.
North Queensland have the most players needing to back up from Origin with six, including the three top tacklers from the game on Wednesday night. Getting all six to play would be one almighty achievement.
There is rightly a move against the Cowboys when they are favoured with North Queensland covering just one of their last eight when the popular elect.
North Queensland also have a very poor record against New Zealand with just three wins in the last 10 meetings.
Underdogs cover at 60% when two bottom nine teams playing.
With the Warriors getting a heap of players back including Addin Fonua-Blake and Tohu Harris and the Cowboys likely to have some Origin outs, New Zealand are a nice bet.
Insights
🔒 North Queensland’s Performance as Favourites: When playing as favourites, North Queensland has found it challenging to cover the spread, achieving only 1 cover in their last 8 games.
📈 High-Scoring Games for NZ Warriors: The NZ Warriors have consistently been involved in high-scoring games against top-8 teams, with the last 8 matches all going over the total points line.
📊 North Queensland Against Bottom-9 Teams: North Queensland has performed well against bottom-9 teams, covering the spread in 16 of their last 20 games and achieving 13+ point wins in their last 3 games against these teams.
Same Game Multi
Kyle Feldt has 20 tries across his last 30 games.
Marcello Montoya has five tries in his six appearances against the Cowboys.
Value Bet
Addin Fonua-Blake is the premier tryscoring prop in the NRL and given how poor the Cowboys are at defending through the middle, he looks an outstanding bet to score this year. He has 13 tries in his last 31 games.
Follow Betseeker for weekly expert NRL tips and predictions for the 2024 NRL season.
