The Sydney Roosters have been hit hard by injury and start notable outsiders against Newcastle but has the market overreacted?
Best Bet
Newcastle have been thrown up favourites against the injury-ravaged Sydney Roosters but the -5.5 on offer does seem very big for a team that has shown very little this year.
The Roosters are without James Tedesco, Sam Walker and Dom Young but Joey Manu shifting to fullback and Connor Watson, Michael Jennings and Junior Pauga coming into the side is not bad cover.
The Chooks have won 16 of 19 against the Knights, covering 10 of the last 13 with the Knights hitting more than 16 points just twice in that run.
The better bet in this game though is the under.
Four of the last five between the two have finished on 42 or fewer. The under hits at just under 61% in the opening eight rounds when teams are off conceding 18-plus. The under is also 17-8 in the opening eight rounds when a small home favourite is off a win of 20-plus.
Difficult betting game but the under is the top play.
Same Game Multi
Joey Manu is in good tryscoring form this year with four tries this season and he has three tries in his last five against Newcastle.
Junior Pauga is a strong tryscorer with four tries in 11 games for the Roosters and scored in his only NRL start this season.
Value Bet
Dylan Lucas is emerging as a fine edge backrower. He has scored three tries in his nine NRL starts including last week. He runs a hard line, he is a tremendous support player and his kick-chase game is quality.
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