The Knights look hopelessly overrated this season and as a big favourite look like the best team to take on in Round 5.
Best Bet
How the market has come up with the Knights being favoured by such a big number is something best left to Adam Smith. It is wrong. Very wrong.
The Dragons are not a great team but they have already won twice this year. They are 10-4 in their last 14 against the Knights. They’ve won five of the last seven in Newcastle.
Most importantly though, the Knights are in a horrific spot. Bottom four teams favoured by more than a try cover at just 35% while those off a loss cover at just 43%.
The Knights have covered just 5 of 15 when favoured by more than a try.
Newcastle are tweaking their halves again. Greg Marzhew remains out. And the Saints are off a win. The Dragons are a great bet.
Same Game Multi
Zac Lomax has seven tries in his last 10 games and after being granted a release, will be playing with some freedom this week.
Tyrell Sloan has six tries already this season and his speed will cause the Knights all kinds of issues.
Value Bet
Kyle Flanagan is enjoying a good year back under his father and that has led to two tries in four games. He is not fast but has enough to be able to beat the lumbering Knights middles that give up plenty.
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