Newcastle have sneakily become one of the form teams of the premiership with four straight wins but will have their work cut out against a Bulldogs team on the up.
Best Bet
Newcastle are heavily favoured to win easily against a Canterbury team missing three of its biggest stars but the Knights seem far too short in betting.
The Bulldogs are without Stephen Crichton, Matt Burton and Viliame Kikau but replacing them in the starting team are Blake Wilson, Drew Hutchison and Jacob Preston so all is not lost.
The Knights are historically very poor when heavily favoured, covering just six of 17 as an elect of more than a try.
The Bulldogs have covered their last four as an underdog of at least a try and they have covered four of their last five against Top 8 opposition.
Also notable is that teams off a win of 20-plus during the Origin period cover at 60% the following week.
Canterbury’s defence is very good and they will rely on that to get it done in Newcastle.
Insights
🌟 Newcastle’s Winning Streak: Newcastle has showcased strong form, securing wins and covers in their last 4 games, extending to 7 covers in their last 9 matches.
📉 Canterbury’s Low Scoring Follow-ups: After wins, Canterbury’s games trend towards low scoring, with the last 4 games following a win all going under the total points line.
❄️ Scoring Constraints Post High Scoring Games: Following games where Canterbury scored more than 30 points, subsequent matches have predominantly gone under, with 7 unders in the last 8 instances.
Same Game Multi
David Armstrong has been a revelation since debuting, scoring five tries in four games with speed to burn.
Jacob Kiraz is playing with career-high confidence and he now has five tries in his last five games.
Value Bet
Jacob Preston is emerging as one of the top edge backrow prospects and has looked very good since returning from injury. Despite starting on the bench each of the last two weeks, Preston has scored tries. He now has eight in just 29 games. Expect him to press again.
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