Brisbane will likely be without a couple of big-name troops when they head to Newcastle to meet the Knights and on the back of six straight losses they are looking at another defeat.
Best Bet
Brisbane are beaten-up, busted and desperate so it is a little surprising that they are favoured on the road against Newcastle.
The Broncos have dropped their last six and there are major questions being asked about how the Broncos have been constructed.
Four Brisbane players turned out Wednesday night and it looks highly unlikely that Reece Walsh and Patrick Carrigan will be healthy enough while Payne Haas and Selwyn Cobbo are no morals. The good news for Brisbane is that Adam Reynolds has been named in the extended squad.
Newcastle’s Origin trio of Kalyn Ponga, Bradman Best and Dane Gagai are all expected to play.
Brisbane are just not playing well enough to be betting them as a favourite on the road. The Knights have firmed from +4.5 to +1.5 and they are a good chance of starting favoured.
This is a handy spot for the Knights. They are 9-5 ATS at home in their last 14 and have covered seven of their last eight off a loss.
The Broncos have covered just 4 of 14 interstate off a loss.
There is only upside in betting the Knights as early as possible.
Insights
🔄 Brisbane Off Loss: Brisbane has struggled after a loss, achieving neither a win nor a cover in their last 4 games. ❌
🔄 Newcastle Off Loss: Newcastle has been strong after a loss, covering the spread in 4 out of the last 4 games
⚠️ Newcastle Conceding 30+ Points: When Newcastle has conceded more than 30 points, they have managed to cover the spread 6 out of the last 7 times. 💪
Same Game Multi
Bradman Best has seven tries in his last 11 games and his confidence is sky high following a stellar Origin showing.
Will Pryce has scored in just one of his four NRL appearances but his running game is his biggest threat.
Value Bet
Brisbane are one of the worst teams in the premiership for leaking tries through the middle of the field. Daniel Saifiti has scored twice in his last 12 games and he has three tries in his last seven against Brisbane.
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