The Warriors have been heavily bet to end a 15-game losing streak against the Storm but the best bet in this one comes in the total market.
Best Bet
There has been plenty of money pouring in for the Warriors in this one. New Zealand have improved over their last few games and get Shaun Johnson back this week but the Storm have been so dominant over the Warriors across the last decade that it is stunning to see New Zealand bet into favouritism.
The Warriors not only have a poor record against the Storm but they are 6-12 ATS off a double digit win and have covered just two of nine at Mt Smart.
The Storm are 16-9 ATS off scoring 36-plus.
The top bet in this one though is the over.
These two have a history of high scorers with the over hitting in seven of the last eight. Six of the last seven have hitting 52 points.
The over is 18-11 when the Warriors are off scoring 24 or more points and has hit in seven of the last 10 at Mt Smart.
The over is 24-15 when the Storm play a team outside of the Top 8.
Expecting this one to go well over the total.
Insights
📉 Melbourne’s Away Struggles: Melbourne has only covered the spread twice in their last 9 away games, indicating difficulties when playing on the road.
🔝 NZ Warriors Against Top Teams: NZ Warriors games against top 4 and top 8 teams have frequently gone over the total points line, with all of their last 5 games in these categories hitting the over.
🏆 Dominance in Head-to-Head: Melbourne has won all of their last 15 games against the NZ Warriors, highlighting a significant advantage in this matchup.
Same Game Multi
Eli Katoa has 12 tries in 34 games since joining the Storm and is constantly featured in the Storm’s redzone attack.
Addin Fonua-Blake is the best tryscoring prop in the NRL by panels. He has 15 tries in his last 38 games.
Value Bet
Tyran Wishart has really emerged in 2024 and he has converted that into tries. He scored a double last round against the Knighrs and he now has six tries in his last nine games. In his last five games starting, he has four tries.
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