Round 12 wraps up in Auckland with the Warriors hosting the Dolphins in a rare road trip and it is the visitors who look a bet with one key Warriors a big chance of missing.
Best Bet
The narrative in New Zealand changed with just a single win with the struggling Warriors now ready to surge after rolling Penrith.
Such positivity though is a little short-sighted.
The Warriors have a ton of injuries and they are a good chance of missing star prop Addin Fonua-Blake. The Sharks-bound front rower is reportedly unhappy at the club and is seeking an early release. His decided lack of impact last week suggests he is taking matters into his own hands.
New Zealand are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 at Mt Smart. They are 2-6 ATS at the ground off a win. They are 14-21 ATS off a win.
Home underdogs off a win cover at just 39% in Rounds 9-12.
The Dolphins are going so well they are in the Top 4. This is a rare road trip but with their talent they are deserving of bigger favouritism than this.
Insights
🏉 Dolphins’ Recent Form: The Dolphins have shown solid performance, securing 7 wins in their last 9 games, demonstrating their competitive consistency.
🏟️ NZ Warriors at Mt Smart: The Warriors have struggled at Mt Smart Stadium, with just 1 win and very few covers (2 in 9 games), indicating challenges on their home ground.
🚫 Warriors Post-Win Performance: Following a win, the Warriors have managed to cover the spread only once in 7 games, suggesting difficulty in maintaining momentum.
Same Game Multi
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has 22 tries in 26 games since joining the Dolphins, a super record.
Connelly Lemuelu has seven tries in 21 starts as an edge backrower and is expected to start despite being named on the bench.
Value Bet
Mark Nicholls has proven himself to be a more than handy tryscorer and is in good form finding a four-pointer. Nicholls has three tries this season including crossing in his last two matches. He is big odds once again.
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