The highlight of Round 20 sees two of the three premiership favourites square off in Melbourne with the Storm and the Roosters and the home team looks well undervalued.
Best Bet
Melbourne are not being shown a lot of respect in this one with the Storm in the rare position of being a home underdog.
It is just the fourth time in the last four years and Melbourne have covered two of their previous three.
It is surprising that the Storm are an underdog. Melbourne have dominated the Roosters of late with nine wins in the last 10 meetings that has seen them cover eight times. In the last nine clashes, the Roosters have not scored more than 18 against the Storm.
The Storm are 10-4 ATS off conceding 28-plus and 13-9 ATS off scoring 40-plus.
The Roosters are 22-31 ATS v Top 8 opposition and with four players on the Origin backup, they do seem vulnerable this week.
Insights
🏟️ Melbourne at AAMI Park: Melbourne has struggled to cover the spread at AAMI Park, achieving just 1 cover in their last 7 games
🏆 Melbourne vs Sydney Roosters: Melbourne has a strong record against the Sydney Roosters, with 8 wins and 7 covers in their last 9 matchups. ✅
🔥 Sydney Roosters vs Top Teams: The Roosters have struggled against top teams, with no wins in their last 8 games against top 4 teams and just 1 cover in their last 7 games against top 8 teams. ❌
Same Game Multi
Ryan Papenhuyzen is an elite tryscorer with 55 tries in 64 NRL starts.
Angus Crichton has eight tries in his last eight club games.
Value Bet
Tyran Wishart has been super in 2024, a player who has really come on. That has translated to tryscoring with Wishart scoring eight tries in his last 15 games including four in his last five. Lovely price.
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