NRL Tips - Melbourne v St George Illawarra

The Storm are flying at the top of the table with the minor premiership seemingly in their grasp but they will get no easy run against a Dragons team that bounces back well.

Best Bet

St George Illawarra +19.5

Line

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$1.90

Melbourne are flying at the moment and get their full star-studded spine in action for just the fifth time this season but this is beautiful spot for St George Illawarra to cover the big line.

The Dragons were awful last week but that tends to be a portent for a good performance the following week. Shane Flanagan has instilled a toughness in the Dragons and they do play particularly well off a poor defensive showing.

The Dragons are 7-2 with an 8-1 cover record off a loss. They have also covered seven of eight after conceding 40-plus points.

In Rounds 21-27, home favourites of 18 or more cover at just 35% while interstate teams off conceding 46 or more over the same period cover at 62%.

This number is just too big.

Insights

🔥 St George-Illawarra Off Loss: In the last 9 games, St George-Illawarra has achieved 7 wins and 8 covers following a loss. 📈

📊 Melbourne vs St George-Illawarra: In the last 8 games between these teams, 7 total over results have been achieved. 🌟

💥 St George-Illawarra After Conceding 40+ Points: In the last 8 games, St George-Illawarra has achieved 7 covers. 📊

Same Game Multi

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$6.50

Ryan Papenhuyzen is a tryscoring machine with 56 tries in 65 starts in the NRL.

Grant Anderson has been in hot form with four tries the last three weeks.

Christian Tuipulotu has six tries in his last four games.

Value Bet

Jaydn Su'A

To Score A Try

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$4.50

Jaydn Su’A is enjoying the best tryscoring season of his career with six four-pointers to date in 16 games. He has crossed in his last two and the Dragons regularly like to use their right edge. This is a huge price.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.