Melbourne are set to start the biggest favourites of 2024 and against a last-start winner no less but even at the big number the minus looks an outstanding bet.
Best Bet
It is hard not to absolutely love the Storm this week.
Melbourne are getting back to full health with their star spine playing together for just the second time this season. Nelson Asofa-Solomona has been named in an extended squad and looks a big chance of playing his first game of 2024. Joe Chan may also return.
Canterbury have been hit hard by injury with Blake Taafe, Kurt Mann and Harrison Edwards all sidelined. The good news for the Bulldogs is that Stephen Crichton will play his first game at fullback.
The numbers line up so well for the Storm.
They have won seven of the last eight meetings with the last three all by 20 or more points. The Storm covered six of those eight clashes.
Melbourne have an unsurprisingly great record at AAMI, covering 19 of 31. They are 15-9 ATS when favoured by more than four at the ground. Most notable are their performances off poor defensive showings, covering four straight at the ground off conceding 30-plus.
The key number this week though is how big underdogs do early in the season, particularly when travelling interstate. Dogs of 16 or more cover at just 39% in the opening eight rounds with interstate teams in that situation covering at just 33%.
With the Bulldogs 6-12 ATS off a win, everything is lining up for the Storm.
Same Game Multi
Xavier Coates should benefit from Canterbury allowing 62.5% of their tries conceded down the right.
Ryan Papenhuyzen has 49 tries in the 58 NRL games he has started.
Eliesa Katoa comes off a double and has eight tries in his last 15 games.
Value Bet
Shawn Blore is anything but a noted tryscorer. He has just one try in 36 games but has spent most of his career coming off the bench, starting on the pine in 22. He gets to play against the Bulldogs right edge though and the Storm playmakers are a fair upgrade on those at the Tigers.
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