NRL Tips – Melbourne v Brisbane – Grand Final 2025

Storm vs Broncos - NRL Tips

The 2025 Grand Final projects to be a ripper in the first decider since 2019 not featuring Penrith with no love lost between the Storm and the Broncos.

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Best Bet

Melbourne -2.5
Line

The 2025 NRL season reaches its crescendo on Sunday night when the last two losing Grand Finalists meet with premiership glory on the line as the Storm and Broncos sit on the precipice of history.

For the first time since 2019 the Grand Final will not feature Penrith, their incredible run of four straight premierships coming to an end last Sunday in an epic against the Broncos.

The timing of the two preliminary finals is key here. The Storm have had an extra two days break and they also had a much softer hit out compared to the Broncos’ epic.

While Brisbane have continued to defy the odds in Michael Maguire’s first season, they are in a tough spot here. Craig Bellamy is the greatest coach the game has known and is guiding a team that has 15 players returning from last year’s bitter defeat.

Defence wins premierships and elite defensive teams nearly always prevail over non-elite ones. The Storm rank 2nd defensively this year while the Broncos were a very average seventh. No team ranked fourth or worse defensively has beaten a Top 2 defensive team in a Grand Final.

The Storm also have a remarkable record against the Broncos – spurred by the Grand Final loss 19 years ago that still drives Craig Bellamy.

Melbourne have won 17 of the last 19 clashes, 14 of those by double digits. The Storm have covered 14 of the last 18. The Broncos have not won two straight against the Storm since 2003-04.

It is hard to see Brisbane going with Melbourne. The Storm project to win and win big in the end, clearing out when the match is out of hand.

Melbourne lift for big games. They have a better team. They are better coached. The situation is betting. Chips in Melbourne.


Same Game Multi

Xavier Coates Try/Will Warbrick Try/Ryan Papenhuyzen Try
Same Game Multi

Xavier Coates has had an elite tryscoring season with 20 tries in 21 matches. He has scored four tries in his last four against the Broncos.

Will Warbrick has scored in both finals this year and is a sublime finisher with 36 tries in 55 games. He has seven tries in five games against the Broncos.

Ryan Papenhuyzen has loved playing the Broncos with eight tries in eight meetings. He has 11 tries in 13 finals matches.


Value Bet

Jahrome Hughes
To Score A Try

Jahrome Hughes has a remarkable tryscoring record against Brisbane and he can continue that in a Grand Final that we are forecasting to be a blowout in Melbourne’s favour. Hughes has 12 tries in 13 matches with Brisbane including a hat-trick in his last full game against the Broncos. In the last four meetings the Storm have scored 30 and Hughes played, the mercurial No.7 crossed for a four-pointer.

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Frankie has spent more than a decade working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.