Manly have a tendency to play down to their opposition while St George Illawarra have been surprisingly tough at times this year and look plenty of value this week.
Best Bet
The Dragons have been underrated all season and we are jumping back on them when they go in a notable underdog on the road against the Sea Eagles.
St George Illawarra have a great record against Manly. The Dragons have won eight of the last 11 including a 20-12 upset win in Round 4. They have covered five of the last six.
There is no real knock on Manly this week. They are a strong bounceback team and they have a great record at Brookvale. They are just 6-12 ATS off conceding 32-plus.
This is just a tremendous spot for the Dragons.
Teams off scoring 48 or more cover at 67% the last four years while underdogs off scoring 56-plus cover at 73%. They are must-bet situations.
The Dragons have also covered 38 of 59 in NSW. The number is just too big.
Insights
🏠 Manly at Home: Manly has covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 home games, showing strong performance on home turf.
🔄 Manly Off a Loss: In their last 9 games following a loss, Manly has covered the spread 7 times, indicating a solid bounce-back ability.
🔻 St George-Illawarra After High Scoring Games: Following games where St George-Illawarra scored more than 40 points, the next games have consistently gone under the total points line, with 9 out of the last 9 games hitting the under.
Same Game Multi
Tommy Talau is in career-best form, scoring four tries last week and a double the game prior. He now has nine tries in his last six games.
Zac Lomax has 10 tries in 12 games this year. He scored a hat-trick last week against the Tigers.
Value Bet
Luciano Leilua comes into this off his best game in the Red V when he terrorised the Tigers, scoring two tries. He is a devastating runner on his day and Manly are a below average defensive side, particularly on their edges.
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