Manly have lost Tom Trbojevic to a hamstring injury and their dire record without their star fullback should make them easy pickings for a red-hot Broncos outfit.
Best Bet
Brisbane are primed for a big win against Manly with the Sea Eagles once-again “hosting” the Broncos at Suncorp in Magic Round.
Brisbane have won the last two meetings by 26 and 38 and look set for a win of similar devastation on Friday night.
The Broncos have covered seven of the last nine meetings with the Sea Eagles.
Manly have a dire record without Tom Trbojevic. Their win rate drops from 54.1% to 39.6% and their cover rate drops 11% while they score 5.12 ppg fewer and concede 2.67ppg more.
With a shocking travel record where they cover at just a 40% clip interstate, Manly are there for the taking.
Brisbane have been in elite form, particularly with the ball in hand, and have covered nine of their last 10 at Suncorp.
They are 14-3 ATS at night, 16-9 ATS when favoured by more than a converted try and 18-8 ATS off a win of 13-plus.
Chips in the Broncos minus.
Insights
📈 Brisbane’s Superior Coverage Against Manly: Brisbane has consistently covered the spread in their matchups, achieving this in 7 out of the last 9 games, and recording significant wins of 13+ points in 5 of these games.
🔥 Brisbane’s Dominance at Suncorp Stadium: Brisbane covers frequently at Suncorp Stadium, doing so in 7 out of the last 9 games, with 6 of these games resulting in 13+ point wins.
🔄 Brisbane Post-Win Scoring Spree: Following a win, Brisbane’s games tend to be high scoring, with overs achieved in all of the last 9 games post-win.
Same Game Multi
Reece Walsh has scored in 10 of his last 14 matches and loves running riot against lower-rung teams.
Ezra Mam has 30 tries in 47 games and is always over the odds.
Selwyn Cobbo has played Manly twice – and has scored a hat-trick in each.
Value Bet
Cobbo has absolutely destroyed Manly in his two previous matchups with hat-tricks in both clashes. When he scores too, he tends to score in bunches. In his 59 NRL games, he has 10 games where he has scored more than one try. Cobbo is in for a big match.
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