Melbourne have snuck under the radar this season despite premiership favouritism but face a tough task to cover the big start as an interstate favourite against Newcastle.
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Best Bet
This is a dangerous spot for Melbourne with the Storm having five players who will be playing Origin just two-and-a-half days prior. There is a good chance all are rested with Cameron Munster at a minimum unlikely to play. It would be surprising if Harry Grant backed up.
With the trends counting against Melbourne here, the Knights look one of the better bets getting a big start at home.
Kalyn Ponga is out long term and Fletcher Sharpe is recovering from an ugly injury but the Knights are getting too many points at home here.
For all Newcastle’s faults, they have been sound defensively. They have conceded more than 22 just once in their last nine games. They have been much-improved in their last four, winning two of those and covering all four.
Double digit home underdogs cover at 66% the last four years with the Knights 10-3 ATS as a home underdogs. They have covered six straight as a home underdogs off a win while they are 5-1 ATS getting eight or more at home since 2023.
The Storm have failed to cover six straight interstate while they are 4-9 ATS interstate when favoured by 10 or more.
Newcastle are a super bet this week.
Same Game Multi
Eliesa Katoa is the best forward in the comp catching kicks and runs a terrific line. He has three tries in his last four games.
Dominic Young is an elite tryscorer with 70 tries in 86 NRL games.
Value Bet
Dylan Lucas has developed into a quality edge backrower and will be a big price to score this week. He has 14 tries in 40 games and will be a feature of the Knights attack over the rest of the season with no Kalyn Ponga.
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