The 2026 season kicks off in Las Vegas with last year’s wooden spooners Newcastle looking to start life under new coach Justin Holbrook against a patchy Cowboys team.
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Best Bet
While the NRL has certainly had more compelling openers than last season’s wooden spooner’s against a team that has finished 11th or worse in six of the last eight seasons but that does not mean a good bet cannot be found and we have found one with Newcastle getting 4.5 points.
Underdogs have a tremendous record in Round 1 with favourites covering at just 41% the last four years. Dogs of at least a try cover at 60% with a head-to-head profit on turnover of 68%.
This is a bad spot for the Cowboys and it is not helped by their 19-25 cover record when favoured. They cover at just 40% when favoured by at least a try.
Newcastle were an attacking nightmare last year but Justin Holbrook will improve that. The Knights have covered 11 of 19 interstate matches.
This line is just too big with the Knights a bet at both the head-to-head price and the 13-plus.
Same Game Multi
The under has hit at a clip of 68.8% in Round 1 the last four years – with the under also 25-16 when the Knights are an underdog of 4 or more.
Fletcher Sharpe has 22 tries in 26 NRL games and is a completely insane price to score this week.
Jaxon Purdue has 14 tries in 18 games at centre, clearly his best position.
Value Bet
Jermaine McEwen is a lanky type who looks a dangerous edge runner. He has crossed three times in 16 games across his debut season after four tries in 13 NSW Cup games. The Cowboys are vulnerable on their edges and McEwen has plenty of upside.
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