The second Queensland Derby of the weekend is receiving a lot less attention than the first though shapes as a critical game for both teams.
Best Bet
The Titans and the Dolphins played two close affairs last year with the Dolphins winning both by two, including a comeback from 22-0 down.
Another close match would not surprise. The Dolphins are favoured here but teams off a big win against teams off a big loss cover at just 37% in the opening four rounds and the Titans have lost all four games off a win of 13-plus.
The Titans have been awful this year, managing just one try, and they rarely lift off a loss, covering just 40% of games off a defeat. Teams off a defeat of 30 or more in the opening four rounds do cover at 61%.
The under is the more reliable bet though even though these teams both can be loose defensively.
The under hits at 71.3% in the opening four rounds the last three seasons when a team is off conceding 18 or more. The under also hits at 59.3% when a team is off a shutout in the opening four rounds and 62% in the opening month when a team is off a loss of 30-plus.
With the Dolphins a big under team at night and the total set big, the under is a confident play.
Same Game Multi
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has 18 tries in 22 games since moving to the Dolphins and comes off a hot two-try performance.
Jayden Campbell returns and he has 10 tries in 29 games when starting at fullback and the Titans are going to need his individual brilliance.
Value Bet
New recruit Tom Flegler was typically used as little more than an enforcer and battering ram at the Broncos but in two games with the Dolphins he has been used a lot more effectively close to the line under Wayne Bennett. He scored on his Dolphins debut. Flegler has four tries in his last 11 games.
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