The Dragons are getting far too big a start at home against a Storm team they have very much troubled in recent years.
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Best Bet
Rumours of the Melbourne Storm’s demise once again seem to have been delivered prematurely with Craig Bellamy’s team thoroughly dominant in their season opener, winning 52-4 over the Eels in a scintillating showing.
The bad news to come out of that one for the Storm though was the early departure of Harry Grant, who left with an apparent ankle injury. Bellamy has since allayed fears of a major injury though and he likely plays this week.
This is not a great spot for the Storm though, who have really struggled against the Dragons of late.
The Dragons have remarkably won the last two against the Storm while covering the last three. Shane Flanagan’s team are 16-8 ATS since 2008.
Home underdogs of at least a try cover at 66% in the opening four rounds of the season while the Dragons are 23-10 ATS getting a start of 6.5 or more. The Dragons have covered seven of their last eight in Wollongong against teams that aren’t Penrith while they are 9-3 ATS v Top 8 opposition.
Teams coming off 50-plus in the opening four rounds cover at just 38% while 6.5-point or bigger favourites in the opening four rounds cover at just 31%.
All in the Dragons with the points in this one.
Same Game Multi
Will Warbrick is a fabulous finisher who has 38 tries in 57 games.
Sua Fa’alogo made the most of his first game owning the No.1 jersey at the Storm with a double against the Eels. He now has 16 tries in 23 games at NRL level.
Christian Tuipulotu is the Dragons’ best finisher with 16 tries in his last 22 games.
Value Bet
Kyle Flanagan is a much-maligned player who rarely gets praise from either Dragons fans or supporters of an opposition team but one of his best characteristics is his ability to follow the play and backup astutely. That has led to him scoring more tries than someone of his speed and lack of run game probably should. Flanagan has 12 tries in 44 games since joining the Red V.
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