St George Illawarra are in a bang-up spot to cover against Penrith in a high confidence betting game.
Best Bet
St George Illawarra +11.5 ($1.90)
This is a massive spot for the Dragons, who should be backed with unfettered enthusiasm and great energy this week getting a double digit start.
Let’s look at some league-wide trends. Home underdogs of more than a try in the first four rounds are 54-28 against the spread since 2008 with two covers from two spots in Round 1. It is also notable that before the league went through a major shift the last two years, home underdogs of 8 or more off a win covered at 74%.
The Dragons have covered five of their last seven against the Panthers and it is notable that Penrith are have covered just one of eight as a favourtie of 10 or more points on the road. This is a major smash spot on the Saints.
Same Game Multi
St George Illawarra +11.5/Under 43.5/Tyrell Sloan Try ($7.00)
The Dragons getting a big start are an outstanding play this week.
The under is the play too. The under went 7-1 in Round 1. It is 14-7 when the Dragons are off a double digit win. The under is 12-4 when the Panthers are favoured by double digits away from Penrith. The under is 22-8 when there is a double digit favourite in Rounds 1-4.
Tyrell Sloan has six tries in six games.
Value Bet
St George Illawarra Win ($3.80)
Home underdogs of more than a try in the first four rounds have a great cover record but also have a very high profit on turnover in head-to-head betting, returning 19% POT with a 35-47 record. The Saints are 4-2 in the spot with a +86% POT.
