St George Illawarra have been downright embarrassing this season, winless and covering just one game, but look the best of the week as a big home underdog against the Knights.
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Best Bet
The Dragons have been a complete moneypit this year with just one cover to go with their no wins through the first third of the season. A coach change to Dean Young, a reset over the bye and the complete humiliation of their last game puts the Dragons in a good spot to find something positive this week as a big home underdog in Wollongong.
Teams off conceding 60 or more are 22-6 ATS the following game dating back to 2008. Teams off conceding 50 cover at 64%. Home teams on rest of 10 or more days off conceding 50 are 15-4 ATS. If the Dragons can’t fire here they won’t be firing this year.
The Dragons have won eight of their last nine home games against the Knights. They have covered seven of 11 off a loss of 30-plus. And Newcastle are 4-9 ATS off conceding 38 or more.
The Dragons getting 8.5 at home is a very good play.
Same Game Multi
Greg Marzhew has eight tries in eight games this year and has scored in two of three against the Dragons.
Fletcher Sharpe is an elite tryscorer with 24 tries in 33 games.
Setu Tu has proven an effective tryscorer on a poor team with three tries in six games.
Value Bet
Trey Mooney is one of the form props of the competition over the last month and his hard-running style has seen him score four tries the last four weeks including the first and last against the Rabbitohs. The Dragons defence has been shameful and Mooney is going to get every opportunity to score.
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