The highlight of Round 12 sees an all-Top 4 clash between Cronulla and Penrith with the Panthers in the very rare spot of being an underdog and coming into a match off a loss.
Best Bet
The Sharks host the Panthers no Saturday evening and it shapes as an epic encounter between two premiership heavyweights.
Cronulla have really stamped their credentials with a win over the Storm in Melbourne and then putting on 38 against the high-flying Sydney Roosters.
Penrith have won the last three premierships and remain the title favourites and will be looking to avenge one of their worst performances over the last four seasons when they went down to the Warriors.
This is a nice spot for Penrith. They are 14-3 ATS off a loss and 9-2 ATS off conceding 22-plus.
The better play in this one though is the under. Penrith are really going to buckle down defensively. They often do after a poor defensive showing.
The under is 11-6 when Penrith are off a loss and 8-3 when the Panthers are off conceding 22-plus.
The under is also 12-6 when the Sharks are off scoring 30-plus and the last three between these two have not surpassed 37 points.
Very keen on the under in this crackerjack clash.
Insights
🏠 Cronulla at Home: Cronulla has a strong record at home, covering the spread in 7 of their last 8 games and achieving 13+ point victories in 9 of their last 15 home matches.
🔻 Penrith’s Recovery Post-Loss: After a loss, Penrith has shown resilience, covering the spread in 16 of their last 20 games, suggesting strong bounce-back capabilities.
🏉 Penrith Against Top Teams: Facing top 4 teams, Penrith struggles to cover the spread and typically sees games going under, with unders achieved in 7 of their last 9 encounters against top 4 teams.
Same Game Multi
Ronaldo Mulitalo has nine tries in 10 games this year and Penrith are weakest defensively on his edge.
Izack Tago has scored in each of his last two and has five tries this year. He has scored in both of his matches against Cronulla.
Value Bet
Sticking fat with Tom Hazelton even in a projected low-scoring game where the Panthers plus is the play. Hazelton is in elite tryscoring form, sitting third on the Sharks tryscoring list with five tries this year. He has scored in four of his last five. Just a great bet to keep on rolling.
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