Big home underdogs early in the season are cash money making the Cowboys an outstanding play in Round 4
Best Bet
North Queensland +6.5 ($1.90)
The Cowboys are a bet before we consider the fact that they lead the NRL in defence and have conceded just four tries all season. Home underdogs of more than a try in the opening four rounds of the season are a remarkable 57-28 against the spread over the last 15 seasons including a perfect 5-0 against the number this year. That number would be higher had the game not changed so much across 2020-21.
North Queensland have been excellent this year and were brilliant smashing the Broncos in Brisbane. They have covered two of their last three off a double digit win.
The Roosters cover at just 47% away from the SCG and just 4 of 11 off conceding 28 or more points.
The push on the Cowboys here is strong.
Same Game Multi
North Queensland +7.5/Jeremiah Nanai Try ($5.00)
North Queensland are a max confidence bet to cover the line.
Jeremiah Nanai has five tries in seven games and comes off a career-defining match where he scored a hat-trick against the Broncos. He is potentially the next superstar forward of the NRL.
Value Bet
North Queensland 1-12 ($4.00)
Home underdogs of 4 or more in the opening 4 rounds have a great cover record but they have won 37 of 85 games for a +20% POT in head-to-head betting. The last four of those wins have all been by a 1-12 margin.
