Newcastle have been humiliated in their last two and coach Adam O’Brien has wielded the axe but they look a strong play at the big line this week.
Best Bet
Newcastle +14.5 ($1.90)
At face value, there is not a lot to like about the Knights. They have headed south dramatically in recent weeks and now sit last on the ladder. The pack is not performing. The halves have offered nothing. The defence of the outside backs is laughable.
They are the bet though getting 14.5 points against the Cowboys in Townsville though and they are for three reasons.
Firstly, double digit favourites this year that are not the Storm or Panthers have covered in just five of 16.
Secondly, teams off conceding 50 are 20-8 against the spread the last four years.
Thirdly, the Cowboys have been a double digit favourite just twice since 2017 and not since 2020.
This is a pure spot bet but it is one with a fair degree of confidence.
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Same Game Multi
Scott Drinkwater Try/Lachlan Fitzgibbon Try ($12.00)
Scott Drinkwater has been excellent since moving to fullback with three tries in four games.
Lachlan Fitzgibbon returns from injury but is a good tryscoring backrower with 27 in 91 games and has such a good combination with Kalyn Ponga.
Value Bet
Valentine Holmes 2+ Tries ($6.50)
Holmes has just three tries this season but they have come in the last six games and if the Knights outside backs continue to tackle like they did last week it is going to get ugly and the exceptionally strong Holmes will have a field day.
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