NRL Tips – Clive Churchill Medal – Grand Final 2022

NRL Betting Tips

The Clive Churchill Medal is awarded to the Man of the Match in the Grand Final. It is one of the most prestigious individual honours in Rugby League and also one of the best betting events.

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Best Bet

Nathan Cleary
Clive Churchill Medal

Let’s first of all look at the profile of players who win the Clive Churchill Medal. It will guide us significantly when looking at best bets.

  • 34 of 36 winners had played Origin/Test football prior to winning
  • 4 winners from losing team (from 36)
  • 0 back-to-back winners

Let’s also look at the positions of winners and the last time someone from that position won the award.

Fullback: 6 winners, 2 in last decade, last 2020
Wing: 0 winners
Centre: 0 winners
Five-Eighth: 4 winners, 2 in last decade, last 2019
Halfback: 11 winners, 4 in last decade, last 2021
Hooker: 2 winners, 0 in last decade, last 2006
Prop: 3 winners, 0 in last decade, last 2008
Second Row: 4 winners, 1 in last decade, last in 2016
Lock: 6 winners, 1 in last decade, last in 2014

So essentially what we are looking for is a rep player from the winning team, preferably playing in the halves or at fullback and definitely not playing in the three-quarter line.

That leaves us with the obvious selection of Nathan Cleary as the best bet. He will need to create history but the lack of back-to-back winners should also be mixed with the fact we have had just one back-to-back premiership winner in three decades. Cleary is a star and is the only Panther to tick all the boxes. He is no spoil the price but if Penrith win he will obviously be right in the mix.

Next Best

Api Koroisau
Clive Churchill Medal

Api Koroisau would be an outstanding bet if not for one fact: hookers are nearly always overlooked for this award. Case in point: Cameron Smith won everything throughout his decorated career but despite playing in five Grand Final wins he never won a Clive Churchill Medal. Koroisau though played Origin this year, is a central part of the Penrith attack and is a game-breaker who can score tries and has a marvellous all-round game.

Value Bet

James Fisher-Harris
Clive Churchill Medal

Props don’t have a super record but widening it to middles there have been nine winners including Sam Burgess in 2014. Andrew Fifita also got completely screwed in 2016 for his issues with the NRL when he was clearly the best player on the field. Fisher-Harris has run for 140-plus metres in 10 of his last 14 while he has 34-plus tackles in five of his last seven. He has the numbers to show up here.