Penrith have started the season in unprecedented form and look set to make life very difficult for a Canterbury team that have not been able to avoid controversy this year.
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Best Bet
The standard Penrith have set through five weeks has been utterly astonishing. They have not only been winning. They have been winning big. And they have been winning early.
Penrith have won all five games by 20-plus points. They have scored 40-plus in their last three. They have conceded just 40 points all season and more than 10 just once. They have conceded just three first half tries.
In short, Penrith are impossible to be against.
Canterbury are in an historically great spot as a big early-season home underdog. Home dogs of 12 or more cover at 71% the last four seasons while home underdogs of eight or more in the opening eight weeks cover at 63’%.
That leads us to the best bet being under on the Canterbury team total. The Bulldogs have just 11 tries this year – one fewer than Tom Jenkins – and not only have major attacking issues but have lost skipper Stephen Crichton.
The Bulldogs have been held to 12 or fewer in six of their last nine against a Penrith team that was not resting their stars.
It is hard to see how Canterbury score in this one.
Same Game Multi
Seven of the last eight games between these two have gone under 42 points with the under hitting in three of the last four overall.
Casey McLean has scored in three of five games this year including his last two.
Brian To’o has five tries in his last five games against Canterbury.
Value Bet
Tom Jenkins has been in utterly incredible form – particularly considering he was not named in the original Panthers team to play in Round 1 – with 12 tries in five games. He has four doubles and a four-try haul in his five matches this year. He has hit in five straight. We would be mad not to ride it again.
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