Brisbane are looking for a measure of revenge for their 2023 Grand Final capitulation when they host Penrith in the second preliminary final on Sunday afternoon.
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While Brisbane’s advantage as the home team with a week off is immense, it is impossible to go past Penrith.
No team since the famous Dragons teams of the 1950s ad ’60s have shown a greater acuity and ruthlessness in winning finals than Penrith. Not only have the Panthers won four straight titles but they have won an incredible 14 straight finals matches.
Penrith know how to get home in big games. And they know how to beat Brisbane.
Including the 2023 Grand Final, Penrith have won nine of the last 10 against Brisbane. They have won six straight at Suncorp and they have restricted the Broncos to 13 or fewer in nine of the last 10.
Brisbane get Adam Reynolds and Ezra Mam back but the loss of Patrick Carrigan should not be underestimated. The Broncos do not have the forwards to cover his absence.
Brisbane have ridden to a home prelim on the back of exceptional Reece Walsh play but no team is better set up to frustrate him than Penrith.
Penrith are 22-11 ATS against Top 4 teams and 16-11 ATS interstate. They look a great bet.
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Brian To’o has a remarkable 17 tries in 17 finals for Penrith.
Paul Alamoti has nine tries in his last seven games including a hat-trick against the Bulldogs.
Kotoni Staggs has 11 tries this year and gets a plus matchup against the worrying left-edge defence of Penrith.
Value Bet
Isaiah Papalii has arguably been the best forward in the competition over the last six weeks. He has been a complete beast whether as a starter or off the bench. He has parlayed that into tries with five tries in his last six games – all when paying north of $5. He is an outstanding bet to score.
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