Brisbane have dominated this matchup in recent years but the loss of three key playmakers has North Queensland in a strong position to end that run of the Broncos.
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Best Bet
Brisbane have been the biggest drifters of the week as they deal with a horrid conflux of injuries with three of their four key playmakers all injured last weekend.
Reece Walsh will be out for the better part of two months with a fractured cheekbone while Ben Hunt and Adam Reynolds will both miss time. Walsh is the most damaging loss. The Broncos win record falls from 69% to 43% while their cover record falls from 62% to 33%. The Broncos are 1-5 with no covers when both Walsh and Reynolds have both missed a game.
This also happens to be a nice spot for the Cowboys with teams off a defensive shutout covering at 64%.
The Cowboys are 6-3 ATS off conceding 10 or fewer with their defence the primary key to their true form.
It is stunning that North Queensland aren’t favoured in this one.
Same Game Multi
The over has hit in 13 of the last 16 Broncos-Cowboys matchups while the over is 18-9 when North Queensland are off scoring 28 or more points.
Braidon Burns has been outstanding as a Cowboy with 16 tries in 22 games for North Queensland.
Scott Drinkwater scored double digit tries the last four seasons and has crossed in two of his last three appearances.
Value Bet
Jake Clifford was considered lucky to keep his spot in the team after two guileless performances in the first two rounds but his form has turned sharply as he has focused more on running the ball than anything else. It has seen him score in each of North Queensland’s last three wins and he loves playing the Broncos too with four tries in eight games against Brisbane.
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