Brisbane have been in complete free-fall with last year’s Grand Finalists now well outside of the Top 8 and in desperate need of a win but face a tough task against the resilient Dragons.
Best Bet
Few saw the fall of the Broncos, at least not one so heavy.
Brisbane are down to 11th on the ladder. They have lost five straight and have been kept to 16 or fewer in five of their last six.
The pack has been decimated by Origin selection and injury while the club is desperately thin on playmakers with Reece Walsh playing for Queensland and Adam Reynolds and Jock Madden out hurt. There is a lot of weight on the shoulders of Ezra Mam.
The Saints have taken some hits too with Ben Hunt and Zac Lomax both on Origin duty. Mikaele Ravalawa is an adequate replacement for Hunt and Jesse Marschke did enough when replacing Hunt last start to help the Dragons beat the Panthers.
The Dragons have covered 14 of 21 off a loss of 20-plus and nine of 14 off conceding 40-plus.
The Dragons getting a start looks an excellent bet in Round 19.
Insights
🔴 St George-Illawarra Resilience: St George-Illawarra has shown resilience after conceding more than 30 points, covering the spread in 7 out of the last 8 games in such situations.
💪 St George-Illawarra’s Comeback: Following a loss, St George-Illawarra has covered the spread in 12 out of the last 15 games, demonstrating their ability to bounce back strongly.
📊 High Scoring Matchups: In the last 8 games between Brisbane and St George-Illawarra, 7 have gone over the total, suggesting a trend of high-scoring encounters.
Same Game Multi
Mikaele Ravalawa has 67 tries in 96 games and is back on the right wing, where he does his best work but has rarely played this year.
Moses Suli has just four tries in 36 games for the Dragons but he is running hard and gets a plus matchup against Deine Mariner.
Value Bet
Jacob Liddle is a very handy tryscorer for a hooker and this is the kind of game he will be taking plenty of shots with the club’s star halfback out. Liddle has four tries this season and three have come in the last three games. Hard to overlook in his current form.
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