The match of Round 14 is unquestionably the Broncos and the Sharks and even with two of the game’s brightest stars missing, this shapes as both a compelling and critical encounter.
Best Bet
Cronulla made the call early that Nicho Hynes was not going to play and given how poor he was in Origin I, they may regret the decision as he is a cerebral player who does not forget easily.
Reece Walsh, of course, won’t show for the Broncos after having his Origin I campaign ended after seven minutes thanks to a vicious high shot.
The Sharks missing Hynes though is far more critical than the Broncos missing Walsh.
The biggest concern for the Sharks is how badly their defence has cratered, conceding scores of 30, 42 and 34 the last three weeks.
They are also 4-11 ATS in their last 15 against Top 5 opposition.
Brisbane have an outstanding record against Cronulla with nine wins in the last 11 clashes. They have covered 15 of 24 since 2008.
The key for the Broncos is how well they perform at Suncorp. They have covered eight of 12 but notably are 18-5 ATS at the venue off a loss and 10-3 ATS at Suncorp off conceding 30-plus.
The Broncos are a really good bet this week.
Insights
📊 High-Scoring Home Games for Brisbane: In the last 9 games played at home, Brisbane has seen 7 matches go over the total points line, indicating a trend towards high-scoring encounters.
🔥 Brisbane’s High Performance After Conceding: When Brisbane concedes more than 30 points in a game, they tend to perform well in the next match, covering the spread in all 4 recent instances and winning by 13+ points in 5 out of 7 games.
✅ Brisbane’s Success After Scoring High: When Brisbane scores more than 30 points in a game, they have covered the spread in 7 of the last 9 such instances, showing strong follow-up performance.
Same Game Multi
Deine Mariner is a tryscoring wizard with 15 tries in 16 NRL games.
Brendan Piakura is starting to find his legs in the NRL and he has scored in his last two NRL matches.
Value Bet
We are back to the well with outstanding Cronulla prop Tom Hazelton. The hulking front rower has scored five tries this season – including four in his last seven – and Brisbane have conceded a huge percentage of their tries through the middle.
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