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The Chicago Bears (2-3) host the Washington Commanders (1-4) for Thursday Night Football at Soldier Field.
In a game where both teams are poor on defence, the total here looks too low. These two sides enter this game ranked 18th (Chicago) and 19th (Washington) for defensive DVOA, a metric that measures overall defensive efficiency.
Chicago has been particularly bad on third down, allowing opposing sides to convert 50.3% of the time, the worst rate in the league. If you can’t get off the field, teams will find a way to score on you, even if they are as prone to turn the ball over as Carson Wentz and the Commanders have been.
Chicago has at least had some success running the ball, with Khalil Herbert in particular enjoying a breakout season, averaging 5.9 yards per attempt.
Justin Fields has admittedly struggled to even make completions in some games this season, but last week against the Vikings was his best performance of the season as he went 15 of 21 for 208 yards and a score.
The game seems to be slowing down a little for the Ohio State product, and if he can at least give opponents something to worry about when passing the ball, he should be able to do plenty of damage with his legs.
Don’t expect an end to end shootout, but this game should produce enough points to go over the very low total.
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Like the Bears here at home. Washington seem to be in disarray whereas the Bears are playing competitive football. Herbert will have a lesser role in the offence this week but he should still be able to clear this low number.
Given the Commanders tendency to give away the football, the possibility of a pick six or a fumble recovery for a touchdown is always in play.