NFL Tips – Texans @ Chiefs – Divisional Round 2025

C.J. Stroud - NFL Betting Tips

The Divisional Round kicks off with No.1 seed Kansas City heavily favoured to best No.4 seed Houston but the Texans project as a very good bet.

Best Bet

Houston +8.5
Line

Kansas City enter the playoffs as the No.1 seed but they have hardly looked the unstoppable force they have in previous seasons and there is not a lot of difference matchup wise with Houston.

Offensively the teams are almost identical, ranking 15th and 16th in points per game with the Texans making slightly more per play while the Chiefs run more plays.

Defensively, the Chiefs concede 2.1 points per game fewer but the Texans rank well ahead at fourth in defensive yards per play.

The trends don’t favour Kansas City either. The Chiefs are the most public team of all and it is factored into the line. Mahomes is a poor 15-27 ATS when favoured by seven or more points, the worst of any QB in the NFL.

CJ Stroud, meanwhile, is 10-6 ATS as an underdog.

In what should be a low-scoring affair, the big start looks a very good bet.

Once again, the Texans have weapons and are not being respected here.


Same Game Multi

Hollywood Brown Over 42.5 Receiving Yards/Xavier Worthy 30+ Receiving Yards/Nico Collins 100+ Receiving Yards

Hollywood Brown has hauls of 45 and 46 in two starts this season with the Chiefs.

Xavier Worthy has at least 45 yards in the air in six of his last seven games.

Nico Collins has nine-plus targets in four of his last seven games and comes off a 100-yard showing against the Chargers.


Value Bet

Nico Collins
Longest Reception 40+ Yards

Nico Collins was not surprisingly the sole focus of the Texans passing game last week, hauling in seven catches for 122 yards. He now has 15 of the 39 catches thrown to wideouts since Tank Dell went down. Collins is also the only real deep threat on the Texans. He pulled in a 41-yard catch last week and has five games this year with at least one 40-yard catch. This is a very nice bet.