NFL Tips - Patriots @ Seahawks - Total Preview

The total is always a critical bet type in the Super Bowl, with an almost perfect split – the over is 29-28-1.

Best Bet

Under 45.5

Total

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$1.90

The under shapes as perhaps the most compelling bet in this year’s Super Bowl.

Both teams are clearly significantly stronger on the defensive side of the ball. Since Week 13, to teams other than the Rams, the Seahawks have allowed 0, 9, 16, 10, 3 and 6 points.

While the Patriots have no doubt benefited from an extremely soft defensive schedule, they have not allowed more than then 16 points in their last five games.

These two teams rank in the top 5 scoring defences, the Seahawks allowing just 17.2 points per game, (1st) and the Patriots 18.8 (5th).

In games where two top five scoring defences have met in the Super Bowl, the under is 4-1.

Both teams also likely to play slowly and control the clock. The Patriots and Seahawks rank 28th and 29th respectively for seconds per play, and average over 10 plays per drive.

These defences place a big emphasis on minimising big plays. In the last ten weeks of the season, the Patriots rank 1st and the Seahawks 2nd in preventing explosive plays.

The weather could be a factor also. Winds of 12-15 MPH are expected, with gusts up to 27 MPH. Games played in winds exceeding 15MPH see a 15% drop in passing efficiency, while field goal percentage also dips.

Both have head coaches who understand situational football, and know how to protect a lead. Both have running games capable of doing so.

Chips in the under.

Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.