NFL Tips - Patriots @ Broncos - Conference Championship Weekend 2025

The Denver Broncos return to the AFC Championship game for the first time in a decade but will need to get the job done without star quarterback Bo Nix after he broke his ankle last week.

Best Bet

Broncos +4.5

Line

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$1.92

New England’s blessed season got more blessed last week when Denver advanced – and will be forced to play without Bo Nix, who suffered a fractured ankle on the Broncos’ game-winning drive. Former Patriot Jarrett Stidham, who has not thrown a pass since Week 18 2024 and has just four NFL starts, will try to get Denver into the Super Bowl.

The market has overreacted way too much though to Nix’s absence with Denver listed as the biggest home underdog in a conference championship final since 1968.

Teams getting at least four points at home in the playoffs are a perfect 9-0 ATS over the last 50 years.

The Broncos have historically been fantastic in the conference championship game, covering nine of 10.

Never mind the move to Stidham with no coach better suited to get the most out of his. Sean Payton has covered 14 of his last 21 with a backup quarterback. Payton is also one of just four coaches to have a straight-up wining record as a home underdog over the last 20 years.

This is a niggly spot for New England too with the last five teams to play Houston failing to cover the next week.

Denver are being wildly underrated in this one.

Same Game Multi

Adam Trautman Over 5.5 Rec Yards/Evan Engram Over 21.5 Rec Yards/Rhamondre Stevenson Over 19.5 Rec Yards

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$5.90

The loss of Bo Nix is expected to stymie the Broncos passing game but running on the Pats is hard and the more likely outcome is that Jarrett Stidham boosts the production of Denver’s tight ends.

Adam Trautman has at least two catches in four of seven since the bye and Sean Payton trusts no receiver more.

Evan Engram plays approximately half Denver’s snaps and he has 21 or more yards in three of his last four.

Rhamondre Stevenson has been very good in the air since the Week 14 bye with returns of 27, 27, 55, 22, 75 and 11 yards.

Value Bet

Lil'Jordan Humphrey

To Score A Touchdown

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$6.50

Lil’Jordan Humphrey is a long way from the top of the Broncos’ depth chart but he absolutely has a role in a fairly congested wide receiver corps and one would assume he has probably had as many practice reps with Jarrett Stidham as any receiver playing. He ha scored in two of his last four games, playing over 60% of snaps in three of those. He is highly undervalued.

Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.