NFL Tips – Patriots @ Bills – Week 5 2025

There should be plenty of points when the much improved New England Patriots travel to Buffalo on Sunday Night Football.

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Best Bet

Over 49.5
Total

The Patriots offence has been a much improved unit to start 2025 and should contribute to this total hitting the over.

Josh McDaniels is back in New England as offensive co-ordinator and his fingerprints are all over the offence which sees Drake Maye lead the league in completion percentage through four games.

The Bills are a tougher test, but between McDaniels scheming and their weakness on the ground, the Patriots should be able to put some points up.

As expected, the Buffalo offence is a juggernaut this season. They average 33 points per game, having put up at least 30 in all four. That’s despite a sloppy effort as big favourites last week against New Orleans.

The Patriots have had a very soft beginning to the season which makes me cautious about recommending them as a line bet, even given the Bills struggles when favoured by a big number.

As such, the over is the clear standout in this one.


Same Game Multi

Over 49.5, Diggs 5+ Receptions, Kincaid Over 30.5 Receiving Yards
Same Game Multi

Stefon Diggs returns to Buffalo off the back of his best game as a Patriot with six catches and 101 yards. Expect him to get plenty of volume in the passing game.

The Bills employ a rotating cast at receiver but Dalton Kincaid is the constant at tight end. He has gone under this number only once this year – by 2.5 yards.


Value Bet

Stefon Diggs
Anytime TD

Diggs received two of the Patriots four redzone targets last week and will be desperate to find the end zone against his old team.

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Frankie has spent more than a decade working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.