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There are three interesting NFL games scheduled for Christmas Day in the US that will be broadcast in Australia on Boxing Day.
Packers @ Dolphins
Miami look a nice play laying the points at home.
The Dolphins pushed the Bills all the way last time in Buffalo, and while they are coming off three straight losses now all of those games were on the road, and against strong teams.
Miami are an impressive 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the number at Hard Rock Stadium this season.
The Packers season is over in any meaningful sense and Miami should be able to move the ball against Green Bay’s dreadfully disappointing defence.
A line of only 3.5 looks too small in this one.
This should be a high enough scoring game. Although the Packers have been poor this season, they still rank 9th in EPA per play on offence. Hill is a superstar and should be over some injury issues that have held him back of late.
Broncos @ Rams
As bad as the Rams are, the Broncos should not be laying points on the road to any team.
The first year of the Russell Wilson era in Denver has been a complete fiasco. While the defence has been a top unit, offensively, the Broncos have been simply woeful.
Last week with Wilson out the Broncos were able to conjure some decent offence through backup Brett Rypien and a decent ground game. Wilson returns this week and as bizarre as it seems, that isn’t necessarily a positive.
The Rams struggled on Monday Night Football in Green Bay but back at home, getting points, they have to be the play.
Hard to see either team scoring many points here but Baker’s passing yards line is extremely low and he should be able to cover it.
Buccaneers @ Cardinals
Speaking of teams that have no business laying a big number on the road, the Bucs fall firmly into that category.
With the names they have on paper – in particular Tom Brady, who is actually playing okay – the Bucs keep sucking you in but they are simply not performing up to that reputation.
Tampa have now lost three of their last four and when they have been winning this season, it hasn’t been by much. Since Week 2 their wins have come by 6, 5, 3 and 1 point.
Arizona are struggling badly without Kyler Murray and their record at home – they are 1-6 straight up and 3-4 against the number – is cause for concern.
Nevertheless, the Bucs are a diabolical 3-8-1 against the number as favourites this season and getting more than a touchdown, the Cardinals look a strong play.
Davis has six touchdowns from twelve games this season and the big bodied receiver should get his chance in conditions that he has thrived in.
