A fascinating wild card weekend kicks off with the return to the playoffs of the LA Chargers in Jim Harbaugh’s first season at the helm, where they will travel to Houston to take on a revitalised Texans team.
Best Bet
The Chargers are back in the playoffs for just the second time in six seasons. There is no doubt that Jim Harbaugh has been a hugely positive influence on the team, helping Justin Herbert to his best season in the pros. The Chargers posted 11 wins for just the second time since 2009.
This is a difficult spot though for the Chargers.
One point against LA is that they are playing their third straight road game. Teams playing on the road in the postseason off at least three straight road games are a a poor 11-27. That is less than ideal as a road favourite off a field goal.
Teams off a playoff drought against teams playing in consecutive playoff series cover at just 31.6%.
Road teams who won more games than their opponents are bad bets too covering at just 38%.
Low-scoring home teams like the Texans are 13-5-1 ATS in playoffs even though they score less than 22.5 points per game.
The Texans have weapons and are not being respected here.
Same Game Multi
Justin Herbert has run for at least 28 yards in five of his last nine games.
Ladd McConkey has topped 80 yards in six of his last seven.
Nico Collins has nine-plus targets in three of his last six games.
Value Bet
Joe Mixon is the Texans’ lead back and that is not in dispute but he has certainly slowed as the season has gone on. Dameon Pearce has seen his snap count increase to 25% and 62% the last two weeks and comes off a 19-carry, 176-yard game that saw a lengthy touchdown. He will get opportunities as well as his usual return duties.
