The Patriots are hosting a playoff game for the first time since Tom Brady played in New England. Will they be able to hold off Justin Herbert and the Chargers?
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Best Bet
The total here looks very high for a game in which the defence should have the advantage on both sides of the ball.
Patriots QB Drake Maye has established himself as an MVP candidate this season, but it’s been without playing a Top 10 ranked scoring defence all season.
Maye has feasted on generating big plays against bad secondaries, but with the Chargers ranking third in the league in completion percentage allowed against passes of 10+ air yards (and first in expected points added by that metric) he will likely struggle to do so here.
The Chargers rank fifth in explosive play rate allowed, so they will need to work up and down the field in a methodical manner.
On the other side of the ball, the offensive line is the clear weakness of the Chargers, and this has been exposed on the road especially. In their last four road games, the Chargers have scored 6, 16, 34 (against the Cowboys), and 3 (admittedly starting their reserves against Denver).
The Chargers allowed 60 sacks this season – not a good place to be, when you are alongside the Vikings and Jets to be equal second in the league.
Both of these teams are Top 10 scoring defences, rank bottom five in offensive pace, and top ten for time in possession.
The under is an outstanding play here.
Same Game Multi
The Patriots should be able to get this done. The Chargers offence is likely to struggle big time here, and while I expect the Patriots to have success running the ball, the fact they split carries between Henderson and Stevenson makes it difficult to bet those players. Happy to take both quarterbacks to hit the under on their yard totals however.
Value Bet
Both quarterbacks are very capable runners of the ball and even in a low scoring game, it wouldn’t surprise to see one run a score, given the stakes of the game.
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