NFL Tips – Bills @ Chiefs – AFC Conference Championship 2025

Patrick Mahomes - NFL Tips

The AFC Championship clash many forecast at the season’s beginning, the Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills with the Chiefs looking to continue to their march towards an historic third-straight Super Bowl while the Bills are looking to return to the Super Bowl for the first time in three decades.

Best Bet

Kansas City -1.5
Line

What a wonderful AFC Championship game we have with the Chiefs hosting the Bills allowing us to see the latest iteration of Mahomes against Allen, two of the star QBs of their generation with Mahomes already rated amongst the greatest ever.

The numbers from this season certainly favour Allen. Allen has thrown 28 TDs to six picks at 7.7 yards per attempt with just 14 sacks, completing at 63.6%. Mahomes completes at 67.5% but his 26 touchdowns have come with 11 interceptions at just 6.8 yards per attempt. He has been sacked 36 times.

It is Allen’s legs though that separates him. While their yards per rushing attempt at similar (5.2 for Allen v 5.3 for Mahomes), Allen has run 44 more times and scored 12 TDs to Mahomes’ two.

It is the intangibles though that separates Mahomes from Allen and in-particular his ability to get the Chiefs home in big games. Allen has won and covered four of five regular season meetings against Mahomes but in the playoffs Mahomes has won and covered on all three occasions.

It is impossible to go past the situation of this game for Mahomes and want to be with the Chiefs. While they are not as visually pleasing to watch as the Bills, the Chiefs just get it done. Mahomes is 27-9-1 against the spread when an underdog or favoured by less than a field goal. In cold games at home from November onwards, Mahomes is 23-2 care-of The Action Network. Mahomes is 29-4 on extended rest.

The Bills are watching injuries to their secondary, which is a major worry, with CB Christian Benford and S Taylor Rapp both questionable. Michah Hyde will not be elevated from the practice squad. The Chiefs did not add to their long list of injuries in their win over the Texans with Mecole Hardman a chance of being elevated this week.

Buffalo are going to need to try to throw to beat the Chiefs. Kansas City can play their normal game. The Chiefs look a great bet.


Same Game Multi

Travis Kelce 8+ Receptions/Xavier Worthy 50+ Receiving Yards/Khalili Shakir 40+ Receiving Yards

Travis Kelce has at least seven catches in eight of his last 10 playoff games.

Xavier Worthy has at least 45 yards in the air in seven of his last eight games.

Khalil Shakir has topped six catches and 60 yards in both playoff games.


Value Bet

Marquise Brown
To Score A Touchdown

Hollywood Brown is just three games back from injury, kicking off his Chiefs career, but he pulled in nine catches in his first two games and just missed scoring the opening touchdown against the Texans when the ball just sailed over his head. The Bills have a busted secondary and Mahomes will take shots with Brown the likely recipient.