NFL Tips – 49ers @ Rams – Week 5 2025

The 49ers are without quarterback Brock Purdy and a number of key offensive playmakers when they travel to Los Angeles to play the Rams.

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Rams -8.5
Total

There comes a point at which the injury toll is too much to overcome and the 49ers have reached it.

In addition to Brock Purdy, basically their entire first choice receiving corps is banged up, as well as tight end George Kittle.

The 49ers entire offence will basically need to flow through dual threat back Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey is a great player and a weapon running or catching, but the poor run blocking this season has seen the 49ers only average 3.3 yards per carry.

It’s hard to see them having much success against the Rams run defence that held Saquon Barkley and the Eagles to 86 yards, and Jonathan Taylor and the Colts to 85 last week.

Offensively, the Rams have a winning formula – just get the ball to Puka. The third year receiver is averaging 125 yards per game and leads the NFL in receptions.

We often extol the virtues of 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan but he has a poor record as a big underdog. The 49ers have failed to cover in their last five as an underdog, and Shanahan is 1-18 straight up in his career as an underdog of 6 points or more.

The Rams have covered in their last four against the Niners and can do so again.


Same Game Multi

Rams -8.5, Jones 32+ Passing Attempts, McCaffrey & Adams 50+ Receiving Yards
Same Game Multi

Given the struggles of San Francisco in the run game, I’d expect Mac Jones to be throwing it early and often – mostly to Christian McCaffrey.

Davante Adams is the lesser light these days but has still put up 50 yards in every game this season.


Value Bet

Mac Jones
40+ Passing Attempts

Happy to play some of the bigger numbers for Jones pass attempts given it is likely to be checkdown season out there. He had 41 in the last game he started, and 39 in the game prior.

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Frankie has spent more than a decade working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.