The AFC South is the worst division in the conference by some distance but there is still a very good bet to claim the divisional crown.
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Division Winner
The AFC South once again looks to lack a genuine Super Bowl contender with plenty of knocks on division favourite Houston and the rest of the pack starting from far too back to rally threaten the big dogs of the AFC.
There is a big assumption that Houston are on their way to a third straight division title but the loss of Laremy Tunsil is massive and the coaching staff have been very cautious with CJ Stroud that creates some pause. They won 10 games last season but were really just an 8.5-win team and playing a first-place schedule they look under.
Jacksonville certainly looks the team to have a ticket on. Liam Coen is a major upgrade at coach and he is far more likely to fit with Trevor Lawrence that Doug Pederson. The 3-10 record close games and the -15 turnover differential are clear indicators that Jacksonville were much better than their 4-13 record and the focus on upgrading at defensive back has them well positioned.
The Colts have seemingly chosen Daniel Jones over Anthony Richardson so that franchise is in a state of flux, even before the death of owner Jim Irsay is factored in. Indianapolis have far more downside than up.
The Titans have a few indicators that suggest they will improve on their 3-14 record from last year. Their real win number was 4.8, they went 2-6 in close games and had a -16 turnover differential and with Cam Ward there is some upside there. They are unlikely to get out of the cellar of the AFC South though.
Season Wins Over/Under
The best way to play Jacksonville is to take the over on their season win total. They project as a nine-win team and benefit from the fifth-easiest schedule where they are not slated at the moment to be bigger than a touchdown underdog.
Player Prop
Trevor Lawrence is almost certain to jive better with Liam Coen, who is a great job tailoring an offense around Bake Mayfield. Since his rookie season, Lawrence threw for 4000-plus yards in his two full years and would have gone close last year if not for injury. If Lawrence stays healthy, he sails past this.
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