The AFC North once again presents as an extremely compelling division with three teams having legitimate claims to division glory.
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Division Winner
Cincinnati are an outstanding value bet to win the AFC North on the back of Joe Burrow and the best receiving corps in the NFL. No team has the explosiveness of the Bengals and their 4-7 record in close games suggest there is some upside. The offensive line has undergone a overhaul and if they can protect better – they can’t go worse – then there is big upside with Cincy.
The Ravens just keep on being the Ravens and that will, of course, put them in the mix. They have won the last two division titles and John Harbaugh always has this team ready to roll. They drafted well again but there is a concern that the Ravens will not have the same health luck as last season.
The Steelers have never been known for splashy moves but signing four-tme MVP Aaron Rodgers to play QB had a fair degree of spunk to it. There is no doubt Pittsburgh need some competent QB play but Rodgers has been in major decline. Losing Minkah Fitzpatrick does not help either. The Steelers had a +16 turnover differential last year so start from a lower base than their 10-7 record suggests.
The Browns still carry the burden of DeShaun Watson and have done little in free agency to improve. Stockpiling draft picks suggests they are already looking to next season.
Season Wins Over/Under
No matter what way you chop it up, the Browns are not getting to six wins. Cleveland are an organisation that have no idea what they are but they are clearly looking to the future. Joe Flacco is not a great choice but looking at the backups, their season is swinging on his 41yo arm. A team as thin and as poor as Cleveland cannot afford the fifth-hardest schedule but that is what they have.
Player Prop
AFC QBs have won six of the last eight NFL MVP awards and there is no doubt at all that Joe Burrow has the talent to join Brady, Mahomes, Jackson and Allen. Burrow comes off a 4918 yard, 43/9 season where he was arguably the best player in the league. With the Bengals expected to improve this year, his chances of MVP glory do too.
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