Dallas will look to close out the series in front of their home crowd. Have Minnesota got anything left or will we see double sweeps in the Conference Finals?
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks (10:30am)
Best Bet
Daniel Gafford has started every game this series, but over the course of this playoff run we have seen his minutes slowly evaporate. The Dallas Mavericks 12th pick in this seasons draft, Dereck Lively II, has been excellent therefore affecting Gafford’s role. The bad news for the Mavs is that Lively has been ruled out with a neck sprain for Game 4. The good news for us, Daniel Gafford should see a whole heap of minutes at Centre.
Gafford averages only 15.6 PR versus Minnesota this season. We see those numbers increase to 24.4 PR per 36 minutes. An even better number of 32.3PR when analysing his per 36 minutes without Dereck Lively II. I’m hopeful if Gaff can avoid foul trouble, he could easily see 30 minutes in this potential close out game. Minnesota are too tall across the roster for Dallas to consider anything less.
Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have been dominating Minnesota on offence, made easier by the option of the lob to the big waiting at the ring. With Lively missing, look for Gafford to get a number of points from under the basket and finishing the alley oop.
Value Bet
Naz was on fire in Game 2 going 7 of 9 from the behind the arc. He finished with 23 points and single handily kept the T’Wolves in that game. He had 15 points in Game 1 and finished on 14 in Game 3 only managing 1 from 5 outside shots.
Rudy Gobert has been like a giraffe on roller skates trying to defend Kyrie and Luka. His minutes dropped from 38 to 29 in Game 3 and I would not be surprised to see them hold or even drop further as he becomes a liability. It might seem bizarre to call the ‘Defensive Player Of The Year’ a liability, but against guards this series he is getting isolated and attacked. Hopefully Naz can pick up an extra 5 minutes or so and hover around the 30 mins playing time.
This has been the perfect match up for Reid as his shooting ability stretches the floor and when open, he is not shy on shooting. Volume won’t be the problem for this line but rather accuracy. If Naz Reid can shoot 50% or greater from downtown, he will get 15.
SGM – Gafford +10 Points/ Reid +10 Points/ Towns Under 8.5 Rebounds/Edwards +6 Rebounds = $4.20