The Knicks squandered home court advantage, losing the first two games in ‘The Garden’, all can be forgiven if they can somehow take a crucial Game 4 from the Indiana Pacers.
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New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers (10:00am)
Best Bet
The hero of Game 1 for Indiana, they were dead and buried until Nesmith went full Steph Curry mode and gave them a sniff, before Haliburton finished the job.
I don’t see him doing that again, but having a significant impact is highly likely. His minutes are solidified because he is required to make Jalen Brunson’s night hell, proving no easy feat. Nesmith has averaged 15 points, 6 rebounds these playoffs and has cleared this line in 9 of the 13 games. With a couple of massive blowouts in the Cleveland series and an ankle sprain last game, that’s a high clearance rate. He has averaged 21.5 PRA per game this series.
The ankle looked bad initally, but he returned and was moving somewhat close to expectation after a nasty sprain. With so much on the line, my bet is he will strap it, play through it and focus on getting this series to an imposing 3 – 1 lead.
Value Bet
It shocked most of us when Tom Thibodeau sent Hart to the bench for the start of Game 3 and elected to try the backcourt of Towns and Robinson. You’ve had all season to try different groups and players but I guess game 3 of the ECF is as good a time as any…I digress.
Josh still played starters minutes and played a similar role despite his position change. The Pacers jumped the Knicks early and led by 20+ points before half time, it wouldn’t shock me if Hart gets injected earlier than last game or even that the 1 game sample size was enough to revert back to status quo.
Hart has averaged 12 PPG this playoffs, scored 8 twice against the Pacers and Boston Celtics fans will be quick to remind you it wasn’t that long ago (5 games) that Hart dropped 24 points, sinking 5 triples. He’s capable!
SGM
Nesmith 10+ Points/ Hart Over 8.5 Points/ Robinson 1+ Block = $3.75