KD heads back to Phoenix where he will receive a mixed reception, but based on his recent form I expect the superstar to fill the stat sheet.
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Best Bet
Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors (12:10pm)
Was my best bet only two days ago, and although his PR has jumped up 5 points since, I’m happy to go again.
Steph Curry is back, but Payton always plays well alongside Curry because he’s such a good cutter and screener off the ball. We know Moody and Butler are out for the season, but Horford, Post and most importantly Santos will not play against the Kings.
Payton is averaging 14.2 points and 5.7 rebounds across his last ten games, covering the PR of 16.5 all ten times. Although Richard might start, I can see Payton playing 26+ minutes in this – maybe more, and in these five games he’s played 26+ minutes this season he’s covered this line on four occasions.
Next Best
Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards (9:10am)
Tre Jones has exploded in the two games he’s played without Giddey and Buzelis this season – both against the Suns, who are a solid defensive unit with point guards only scoring 1% above average over the last month against Phoenix. Cannot say the same about Washington.
The Wizards are the second easiest team for point guards to score against over the last month at 14% above average, and Tre Jones has proven he can score the basketball when Giddey and Buzelis are out of the lineup.
Jones had 21 the first time against the Suns, and then a month later backed it up with 29 points which came last start. The former Spur has been good the last month now even with Giddey, averaging 18.1 points from his last 14 games. He could go for 30 here (paying $8.75).
Value Bet
Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns (1:10pm)
Revenge narrative for KD against the Suns, and based on current form he would have to be on triple double watch ($36).
Durant is averaging 7.9 assists from his last seven games, hitting 6+ assists in all seven games including double digit dimes against the Grizzlies.
Looking at the Houston dynamic, since February 25 when Reed Sheppard has started alongside KD, Durant has averaged 6.2 assists from 13 games – but in the nine games Sheppard hasn’t started, KD is averaging just four assists.
Clearly having Sheppard’s range has helped KD become more of a playmaker in this Houston offense.
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